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Economics of Migration

Karpestam, Peter LU (2009) In Lund Economic Studies 153.
Abstract (Swedish)
Popular Abstract in Swedish

Den här avhandlingen innehåller fyra uppsatser som på ett eller annat sätt relaterar till befolkningsströmningar såsom dess ekonomiska konsekvenser och orsaker.



I den första uppsatsen används en hushållsundersökning från Kina för att undersöka huruvida utbildning bidrar till att höja inkomsterna hos hushåll i jordbrukssektorn. Genom regressionsanalys uppmäts korrelationen mellan de aktuella hushållens inkomster och utbildningsnivån på personer som antingen bor i eller har flyttat från hushållen (migranter). Den allmänna slutsatsen är att utbildning bidrar till att höja inkomsterna. För personer som bor i hushållen har högre utbildning en positiv korrelation med de inkomster som... (More)
Popular Abstract in Swedish

Den här avhandlingen innehåller fyra uppsatser som på ett eller annat sätt relaterar till befolkningsströmningar såsom dess ekonomiska konsekvenser och orsaker.



I den första uppsatsen används en hushållsundersökning från Kina för att undersöka huruvida utbildning bidrar till att höja inkomsterna hos hushåll i jordbrukssektorn. Genom regressionsanalys uppmäts korrelationen mellan de aktuella hushållens inkomster och utbildningsnivån på personer som antingen bor i eller har flyttat från hushållen (migranter). Den allmänna slutsatsen är att utbildning bidrar till att höja inkomsterna. För personer som bor i hushållen har högre utbildning en positiv korrelation med de inkomster som är införskaffade utanför jordbruket. Resultaten stödjer vidare att permanenta migranter med 7-9 års utbildning skickar mer pengar till hushållen än permanenta migranter med 1-6 års utbildning. Dock hittas inget stöd för att mer utbildning höjer möjligheten att ekonomiskt bidra till hushållen hos personer som endast flyttat tillfälligt.



I den andra uppsatsen används en landsomfattande och nationellt representativ hushållsundersökning från Guatemala. Uppsatsen tar sin utgångspunkt i att olika segment på arbetsmarknaden skiljer sig åt vid såväl inträdes som utträdesvillkor och avser att skatta tidseffekter och om dessa skiljer sig mellan migranter och icke-migranter. Uppsatsen fokuserar särskilt på uppdelningen mellan den informella och den formella sektorn och delar in arbetsmarknaden i fyra segment: Jordbrukssektorn(informell), Egenanställda(informell), oskyddade anställda(informell) samt skyddade anställda(formell). Mer specifikt så undersöks hur den tid som individer varit bofasta vid sitt nuvarande residens (YearsCurrent) påverkar deras chanser att hitta anställning i de olika segmenten och vidare hur den tid som individer varit anställda (Experience) påverkar deras lön. Resultaten styrker att ökningar av YearsCurrent höjer sannolikheten för anställning i alla segment utom jordbruket, och att effekten är högst för migranter. I jordbruksektorn är effekterna motsatta. Ökningar av Experience är korrelerat med högre lön i den formella sektorn (skyddade anställda) och för migranter finns även ett positivt samband med lönen bland oskyddade anställda (den informella sektorn). Uppsatsen har två resultat som förtjänar att betonas: 1) För icke-migranter så har YearsCurrent större effekt på chansen att bli ”oskyddad anställd” än på chanserna att hitta en annan anställningsform. Det skulle kunna förklaras av en högre betydelse av socialt kapital än i de andra segmenten på arbetsmarknaden. 2) Tid har generellt sett en mer positiv effekt för migranter än icke-migranter vilket motsäger att migranter diskrimineras.



Den tredje uppsatsen använder makroekonomisk data och simulerar internationella penningförsändelsers dynamiska multiplikatoreffekter i en panel med 120 länder mellan 1980 och 2006. Modellen bygger på estimering av tre strukturella ekvationer. Resultaten från dessa används för att simulera hur en enhetsökning av penningförsändelser påverkar den totala inkomsten i mottagarländer genom multiplikatorinverkan på kort (1 år) och lång sikt (10 år). Vidare simuleras effekterna från faktiska penningförsändelser mellan land för land. Under antagandet att penningförsändelserna disponeras på samma sätt som övriga inkomster så stödjer resultaten positiva multiplikatoreffekter som varierar i omfattande grad mellan regioner och inkomstkategorier. De största effekterna sedan 1980-talet uppskattas i Nordafrika och Mellanöstern samt. Latinamerika och Karibien (400 dollar per invånare och år). Uppdelat på inkomster så hittas de största effekterna i låginkomstkategorin (330 dollar per invånare och år). Om man istället separerar penningförsändelserna från andra inkomster ändrar sig resultaten drastiskt. De uppskattade multiplikatoreffekterna blir högre i vissa kategorier och lägre i andra (tom. negativa). Dessa resultat måste dock tolkas ytterst varsamt.



Den fjärde och sista uppsatsen, som är samförfattad med Fredrik NG Andersson, föreslår vi ett nymodigt tillvägagångssätt för att undersöka de endogenitetsproblem som föreligger när man försöker estimera internationella penningförsändelsers ekonomiska konsekvenser. Mer specifikt så föreslår vi en metod för att testa om man kan hitta stöd för två välkända hypoteser om varför migranter skänker pengar till sina närstående: Försäkringsmotiv och altruistiska motiv. De två hypoteserna föreslår samma kortsiktiga samband mellan penningförsändelser och mottagarnas konsumtionsnivå men olika samband på lång sikt. Genom att dekomponera datan till cykler, som representerar den korta sikten, och trender, som representerar den långa, kan vi därför testa de två hypoteserna. Vi använder en makroekonomisk panel med data för konsumtion och penningförsändelser för 50 låg- och medelinkomstländer mellan 1980 och 2006. Vi skattar keynesianska konsumtionsfunktioner med BNP och penniförsändelser som förklarande variabler. Konsumtionsfunktionerna skattas för hela panelen med alla 50 länder med delas också in i underpaneler baserat på geografiskt läge och inkomststatus. Resultaten ger generellt sett mer stöd för altruistiska än försäkringsbaserad (Less)
Abstract
Abstract

Population movements are more substantial today than at any other point in human history. If managed effectively, migration can be beneficial for all aspects of social and economic life. This thesis contains four papers, all of which are related to the economic consequences and determinants of migration, within and across countries.

The first paper employs a household survey to explore whether education has an effect on the income attainments of rural households in China. The educational levels of people residing in the households and people who have moved from the households (migrants) are considered. A substantial flow of rural-urban migration, considerable drop-out rates and emerging evidence of the... (More)
Abstract

Population movements are more substantial today than at any other point in human history. If managed effectively, migration can be beneficial for all aspects of social and economic life. This thesis contains four papers, all of which are related to the economic consequences and determinants of migration, within and across countries.

The first paper employs a household survey to explore whether education has an effect on the income attainments of rural households in China. The educational levels of people residing in the households and people who have moved from the households (migrants) are considered. A substantial flow of rural-urban migration, considerable drop-out rates and emerging evidence of the positive effects of education in China motivate the study. The findings generally show that the effects of education are positive. For household members, more education increases earnings from non-farm work. Permanent migrants with 7-9 years of schooling remit more money to the households than permanent migrants with 1-6 years of education. However, although temporary migrants are found to contribute to household incomes by bringing home money earned from non-farm work, the results do not indicate that more education increases the ability to do so.

The second paper employs a household survey from Guatemala. Building on the general observation that distinct segments of the labor market are characterized by varying entry and exit conditions, the aim is to compare the effects of time in different segments of the labor market and to investigate whether the effects vary between migrants and natives. A particular focus lies on the dichotomous division between the informal and formal sectors. The labor market is divided into Agriculture (informal), Self-employment (informal), Uncovered Wage Work (informal) and Covered Wage Work (formal). This paper investigates how the amount of time individuals have spent at their current residence before obtaining their current job (YearsCurrent) has affected their probability of employment, and how the number of years of employment (Experience) affects earnings. Amongst other things, time can be a proxy for individual influence and knowledge. For all sectors except agriculture, it is found that YearsCurrent is positively correlated with the probability of employment, and that the effect is higher for migrants than natives. There is a reversed pattern in agriculture. Experience positively affects earnings for all covered wage workers, and there is a positive effect for migrants performing uncovered wage work. Experience has a negative correlation with earnings in agriculture for all workers. Two important findings are: 1) For natives, YearsCurrent has the strongest effect for uncovered wage workers, which could indicate a higher importance of social capital than in other sectors. 2) Migrants generally benefit more from time than natives, which contradicts migrant discrimination.

The third paper employs macroeconomic data and simulates dynamic multiplier effects of international remittances in a panel of 120 countries for the period 1980 to 2006. Three structural equations are estimated to assess how a unit increase in remittances affects total income in the receiving country within one year (short run) and ten years (long run). When remittances are assumed to have the same spending patterns as other incomes (GDP), the findings suggest positive multiplier effects, which vary substantially across regions and income categories. North Africa and the Middle East and Latin America and the Caribbean had the greatest rise in income due to remittances since the 1980s (400 US$/Capita/Year). Among income categories, lower middle income economies benefited the most (330 US$/Capita/Year). Separating remittances from other incomes and allowing different spending patterns change the results quite dramatically. The results of this exercise, which must be interpreted very cautiously, suggest considerably different multiplier effects that are lower in some regions (sometimes even negative) and higher in others.

The fourth paper, co-authored with Fredrik NG Andersson, explores the reverse causality problem of remittances in a new-fangled way; i.e. by testing the validity of two hypotheses about the determinants of remittances i.e. the altruism and insurance hypotheses. These predict the same short run, but different long run relationships between remittances and consumption. The hypotheses are tested by decomposing the data into cycles, representing the short run, and a trend, representing the long run. A macroeconomic panel with consumption and remittances data for 50 low and middle income economies between 1980 and 2006 is used for this purpose. This paper estimates Keynesian consumption functions with GDP and remittances per capita as explanatory variables for the full panel and for different sub panels: Declining economies, Rapidly Growing Economies, Low Income Economies and Middle Income Economies. Generally, the results provide more support for the altruism hypothesis than the insurance hypothesis. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Professor Hammerstedt, Mats, Växjö University
organization
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Time, Simulations, Remittances, Panel Data, Multiplier Effects, Migration, The Labor Market, Education, Informal and Formal Sectors
in
Lund Economic Studies
volume
153
pages
155 pages
publisher
Department of Economics, Lund Universtiy
defense location
Ekonomihögskolan, Lunds Universitet, Sal EC3: 207.
defense date
2009-05-14 10:15
external identifiers
  • scopus:84904455821
ISSN
0460-0029
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
1e9a61a1-3267-4eea-a96b-18676fd9d944 (old id 1368368)
date added to LUP
2009-04-06 13:59:24
date last changed
2017-08-20 04:07:33
@phdthesis{1e9a61a1-3267-4eea-a96b-18676fd9d944,
  abstract     = {Abstract <br/><br>
 Population movements are more substantial today than at any other point in human history. If managed effectively, migration can be beneficial for all aspects of social and economic life. This thesis contains four papers, all of which are related to the economic consequences and determinants of migration, within and across countries. <br/><br>
 The first paper employs a household survey to explore whether education has an effect on the income attainments of rural households in China. The educational levels of people residing in the households and people who have moved from the households (migrants) are considered. A substantial flow of rural-urban migration, considerable drop-out rates and emerging evidence of the positive effects of education in China motivate the study. The findings generally show that the effects of education are positive. For household members, more education increases earnings from non-farm work. Permanent migrants with 7-9 years of schooling remit more money to the households than permanent migrants with 1-6 years of education. However, although temporary migrants are found to contribute to household incomes by bringing home money earned from non-farm work, the results do not indicate that more education increases the ability to do so. <br/><br>
 The second paper employs a household survey from Guatemala. Building on the general observation that distinct segments of the labor market are characterized by varying entry and exit conditions, the aim is to compare the effects of time in different segments of the labor market and to investigate whether the effects vary between migrants and natives. A particular focus lies on the dichotomous division between the informal and formal sectors. The labor market is divided into Agriculture (informal), Self-employment (informal), Uncovered Wage Work (informal) and Covered Wage Work (formal). This paper investigates how the amount of time individuals have spent at their current residence before obtaining their current job (YearsCurrent) has affected their probability of employment, and how the number of years of employment (Experience) affects earnings. Amongst other things, time can be a proxy for individual influence and knowledge. For all sectors except agriculture, it is found that YearsCurrent is positively correlated with the probability of employment, and that the effect is higher for migrants than natives. There is a reversed pattern in agriculture. Experience positively affects earnings for all covered wage workers, and there is a positive effect for migrants performing uncovered wage work. Experience has a negative correlation with earnings in agriculture for all workers. Two important findings are: 1) For natives, YearsCurrent has the strongest effect for uncovered wage workers, which could indicate a higher importance of social capital than in other sectors. 2) Migrants generally benefit more from time than natives, which contradicts migrant discrimination. <br/><br>
 The third paper employs macroeconomic data and simulates dynamic multiplier effects of international remittances in a panel of 120 countries for the period 1980 to 2006. Three structural equations are estimated to assess how a unit increase in remittances affects total income in the receiving country within one year (short run) and ten years (long run). When remittances are assumed to have the same spending patterns as other incomes (GDP), the findings suggest positive multiplier effects, which vary substantially across regions and income categories. North Africa and the Middle East and Latin America and the Caribbean had the greatest rise in income due to remittances since the 1980s (400 US$/Capita/Year). Among income categories, lower middle income economies benefited the most (330 US$/Capita/Year). Separating remittances from other incomes and allowing different spending patterns change the results quite dramatically. The results of this exercise, which must be interpreted very cautiously, suggest considerably different multiplier effects that are lower in some regions (sometimes even negative) and higher in others.<br/><br>
 The fourth paper, co-authored with Fredrik NG Andersson, explores the reverse causality problem of remittances in a new-fangled way; i.e. by testing the validity of two hypotheses about the determinants of remittances i.e. the altruism and insurance hypotheses. These predict the same short run, but different long run relationships between remittances and consumption. The hypotheses are tested by decomposing the data into cycles, representing the short run, and a trend, representing the long run. A macroeconomic panel with consumption and remittances data for 50 low and middle income economies between 1980 and 2006 is used for this purpose. This paper estimates Keynesian consumption functions with GDP and remittances per capita as explanatory variables for the full panel and for different sub panels: Declining economies, Rapidly Growing Economies, Low Income Economies and Middle Income Economies. Generally, the results provide more support for the altruism hypothesis than the insurance hypothesis.},
  author       = {Karpestam, Peter},
  issn         = {0460-0029},
  keyword      = {Time,Simulations,Remittances,Panel Data,Multiplier Effects,Migration,The Labor Market,Education,Informal and Formal Sectors},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {155},
  publisher    = {Department of Economics, Lund Universtiy},
  school       = {Lund University},
  series       = {Lund Economic Studies},
  title        = {Economics of Migration},
  volume       = {153},
  year         = {2009},
}