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Paradigm shift in engineering of pluvial floods: From historical recurrence intervals to risk-based design for an uncertain future

Haghighatafshar, Salar LU ; Becker, Per LU ; Moddemeyer, Steve ; Persson, Andreas LU ; Sörensen, Johanna LU ; Aspegren, Henrik LU and Jönsson, Karin LU (2020) In Sustainable Cities and Society 61.
Abstract
Precipitation is intrinsically associated with high uncertainty, which is exacerbated exponentially over time—especially concerning climate change. However, the current design practice in urban drainage infrastructure remains firmly bound to deterministic assumptions regarding the design load. This approach is too simplified—focusing only on the return period of the design event—and ignores the complexity of drainage systems and the potential changes in catchment hydrology and the at-risk valuable assets within. Therefore, the current design approach is inherently an unsustainable practice that cannot deal with extreme uncertainties associated with urban drainage and flood resilience in changing climate and society. This paper examines the... (More)
Precipitation is intrinsically associated with high uncertainty, which is exacerbated exponentially over time—especially concerning climate change. However, the current design practice in urban drainage infrastructure remains firmly bound to deterministic assumptions regarding the design load. This approach is too simplified—focusing only on the return period of the design event—and ignores the complexity of drainage systems and the potential changes in catchment hydrology and the at-risk valuable assets within. Therefore, the current design approach is inherently an unsustainable practice that cannot deal with extreme uncertainties associated with urban drainage and flood resilience in changing climate and society. This paper examines the current deterministic design practice and encourages a collective discussion on the need for a paradigm shift in the engineering of pluvial floods toward a risk-based design. We believe that adopting a risk-based design will partially address the uncertainty and complexity of climate and urban drainage, respectively, although a method for the new practice in a risk-based design paradigm must be developed.

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author
; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
pluvial floods, urban flood risk, drainage infrastructure, climate change, deterministic design, probabilistic design
in
Sustainable Cities and Society
volume
61
article number
102317
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85086504618
ISSN
2210-6707
DOI
10.1016/j.scs.2020.102317
project
Sustainable Urban Flood Management
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2651224f-45c0-4672-a60b-f78b356caa5c
date added to LUP
2020-06-10 20:33:22
date last changed
2020-07-05 06:02:48
@article{2651224f-45c0-4672-a60b-f78b356caa5c,
  abstract     = {Precipitation is intrinsically associated with high uncertainty, which is exacerbated exponentially over time—especially concerning climate change. However, the current design practice in urban drainage infrastructure remains firmly bound to deterministic assumptions regarding the design load. This approach is too simplified—focusing only on the return period of the design event—and ignores the complexity of drainage systems and the potential changes in catchment hydrology and the at-risk valuable assets within. Therefore, the current design approach is inherently an unsustainable practice that cannot deal with extreme uncertainties associated with urban drainage and flood resilience in changing climate and society. This paper examines the current deterministic design practice and encourages a collective discussion on the need for a paradigm shift in the engineering of pluvial floods toward a risk-based design. We believe that adopting a risk-based design will partially address the uncertainty and complexity of climate and urban drainage, respectively, although a method for the new practice in a risk-based design paradigm must be developed.<br/><br/>},
  author       = {Haghighatafshar, Salar and Becker, Per and Moddemeyer, Steve and Persson, Andreas and Sörensen, Johanna and Aspegren, Henrik and Jönsson, Karin},
  issn         = {2210-6707},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {06},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Sustainable Cities and Society},
  title        = {Paradigm shift in engineering of pluvial floods: From historical recurrence intervals to risk-based design for an uncertain future},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102317},
  doi          = {10.1016/j.scs.2020.102317},
  volume       = {61},
  year         = {2020},
}