Advanced

Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women

Steffen, Annika ; Sorensen, Thorkild I. A. ; Knueppel, Sven ; Travier, Noemie ; Sanchez, Maria-Jose ; Maria Huerta, Jose ; Ramon Quiros, J. ; Ardanaz, Eva ; Dorronsoro, Miren and Teucher, Birgit , et al. (2013) In PLoS ONE 8(7).
Abstract
Background: Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. Methods: We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53 degrees 758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining >= 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used... (More)
Background: Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. Methods: We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53 degrees 758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining >= 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). Results: Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of >= 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. Conclusion: The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
, et al. (More)
(Less)
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
PLoS ONE
volume
8
issue
7
article number
e67429
publisher
Public Library of Science
external identifiers
  • wos:000322064300009
  • scopus:84880463369
ISSN
1932-6203
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0067429
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
40dea09e-6941-4a63-8f75-32a748f54345 (old id 4112528)
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 13:09:38
date last changed
2020-01-12 11:13:53
@article{40dea09e-6941-4a63-8f75-32a748f54345,
  abstract     = {Background: Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. Methods: We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53 degrees 758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining >= 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). Results: Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of >= 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. Conclusion: The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.},
  author       = {Steffen, Annika and Sorensen, Thorkild I. A. and Knueppel, Sven and Travier, Noemie and Sanchez, Maria-Jose and Maria Huerta, Jose and Ramon Quiros, J. and Ardanaz, Eva and Dorronsoro, Miren and Teucher, Birgit and Li, Kuanrong and Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas and van der A, Daphne and Mattiello, Amalia and Palli, Domenico and Tumino, Rosario and Krogh, Vittorio and Vineis, Paolo and Trichopoulou, Antonia and Orfanos, Philippos and Trichopoulos, Dimitrios and Hedblad, Bo and Wallström, Peter and Overvad, Kim and Halkjaer, Jytte and Tjonneland, Anne and Fagherazzi, Guy and Dartois, Laureen and Crowe, Francesca and Khaw, Kay-Tee and Wareham, Nick and Middleton, Lefkos and May, Anne M. and Peeters, Petra H. M. and Boeing, Heiner},
  issn         = {1932-6203},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {7},
  publisher    = {Public Library of Science},
  series       = {PLoS ONE},
  title        = {Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women},
  url          = {https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/ws/files/3196393/4253894},
  doi          = {10.1371/journal.pone.0067429},
  volume       = {8},
  year         = {2013},
}