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Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment

Groot, Colin LU ; Smith, Ruben LU ; Collij, Lyduine E. LU ; Mastenbroek, Sophie E. LU ; Stomrud, Erik LU orcid ; Binette, Alexa Pichet LU ; Leuzy, Antoine LU ; Palmqvist, Sebastian LU orcid ; Mattsson-Carlgren, Niklas LU orcid and Strandberg, Olof LU , et al. (2024) In JAMA Neurology 81(8). p.845-856
Abstract

IMPORTANCE An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination... (More)

IMPORTANCE An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. EXPOSURES Tau PET, Aβ PET, and MRI. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta–region of interest), Aβ PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. RESULTS In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aβ PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.

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type
Contribution to journal
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published
subject
in
JAMA Neurology
volume
81
issue
8
pages
12 pages
publisher
American Medical Association
external identifiers
  • scopus:85195841143
  • pmid:38857029
ISSN
2168-6149
DOI
10.1001/jamaneurol.2024.1612
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
414b4228-80f9-47b9-a629-0eb35ca8f132
date added to LUP
2024-09-09 10:16:34
date last changed
2024-10-07 14:15:51
@article{414b4228-80f9-47b9-a629-0eb35ca8f132,
  abstract     = {{<p>IMPORTANCE An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. EXPOSURES Tau PET, Aβ PET, and MRI. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta–region of interest), Aβ PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. RESULTS In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P &lt; .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aβ PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.</p>}},
  author       = {{Groot, Colin and Smith, Ruben and Collij, Lyduine E. and Mastenbroek, Sophie E. and Stomrud, Erik and Binette, Alexa Pichet and Leuzy, Antoine and Palmqvist, Sebastian and Mattsson-Carlgren, Niklas and Strandberg, Olof and Cho, Hanna and Lyoo, Chul Hyoung and Frisoni, Giovanni B. and Peretti, Debora E. and Garibotto, Valentina and La Joie, Renaud and Soleimani-Meigooni, David N. and Rabinovici, Gil and Ossenkoppele, Rik and Hansson, Oskar}},
  issn         = {{2168-6149}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{08}},
  number       = {{8}},
  pages        = {{845--856}},
  publisher    = {{American Medical Association}},
  series       = {{JAMA Neurology}},
  title        = {{Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamaneurol.2024.1612}},
  doi          = {{10.1001/jamaneurol.2024.1612}},
  volume       = {{81}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}