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A risk score model to predict incidental gallbladder cancer in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy

Muszynska, Carolina LU ; Nilsson, Johan LU orcid ; Lundgren, Linda ; Lindell, Gert LU ; Andersson, Roland LU ; Sandström, Per and Andersson, Bodil LU orcid (2020) In American Journal of Surgery 220(3). p.741-744
Abstract

Background: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a poor prognosis. The aim was to develop and validate a preoperative risk score for incidental gallbladder cancer (IGBC) in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy. Methods: Data registered in the nationwide Swedish Registry for Gallstone Surgery (GallRiks) was analyzed, including the derivation cohort (n = 28915, 2007–2014) and the validation cohort (n = 7851, 2014–2016). An additive risk score model based on odds ratio was created. Results: The scoring model to predict IGBC includes age, female gender, previous cholecystitis, and either jaundice or acute cholecystitis. The calibration by HL test and discrimination by AUROC was 8.27 (P = 0.291) and 0.76 in the derivation cohort (214 IGBC) and... (More)

Background: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a poor prognosis. The aim was to develop and validate a preoperative risk score for incidental gallbladder cancer (IGBC) in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy. Methods: Data registered in the nationwide Swedish Registry for Gallstone Surgery (GallRiks) was analyzed, including the derivation cohort (n = 28915, 2007–2014) and the validation cohort (n = 7851, 2014–2016). An additive risk score model based on odds ratio was created. Results: The scoring model to predict IGBC includes age, female gender, previous cholecystitis, and either jaundice or acute cholecystitis. The calibration by HL test and discrimination by AUROC was 8.27 (P = 0.291) and 0.76 in the derivation cohort (214 IGBC) and 14.28 (P = 0.027) and 0.79 in the validation cohort (35 IGBC). The scoring system was applied to three risk-groups, based on the risk of having IGBC, eg. the high-risk group (>8 points) included 7878 patients, with 154 observed and 148 expected IGBC cases. Conclusion: We present the first risk score model to predict IGBC. The model estimates the expected risk for the individual patient and may help to optimize treatment strategies.

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author
; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Incidental gallbladder cancer, Risk score model
in
American Journal of Surgery
volume
220
issue
3
pages
4 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85084862846
  • pmid:32037044
ISSN
0002-9610
DOI
10.1016/j.amjsurg.2020.01.039
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
5d201088-dd93-4bef-b0ec-7fe12418556c
date added to LUP
2021-01-08 13:08:25
date last changed
2024-05-31 05:46:36
@article{5d201088-dd93-4bef-b0ec-7fe12418556c,
  abstract     = {{<p>Background: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a poor prognosis. The aim was to develop and validate a preoperative risk score for incidental gallbladder cancer (IGBC) in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy. Methods: Data registered in the nationwide Swedish Registry for Gallstone Surgery (GallRiks) was analyzed, including the derivation cohort (n = 28915, 2007–2014) and the validation cohort (n = 7851, 2014–2016). An additive risk score model based on odds ratio was created. Results: The scoring model to predict IGBC includes age, female gender, previous cholecystitis, and either jaundice or acute cholecystitis. The calibration by HL test and discrimination by AUROC was 8.27 (P = 0.291) and 0.76 in the derivation cohort (214 IGBC) and 14.28 (P = 0.027) and 0.79 in the validation cohort (35 IGBC). The scoring system was applied to three risk-groups, based on the risk of having IGBC, eg. the high-risk group (&gt;8 points) included 7878 patients, with 154 observed and 148 expected IGBC cases. Conclusion: We present the first risk score model to predict IGBC. The model estimates the expected risk for the individual patient and may help to optimize treatment strategies.</p>}},
  author       = {{Muszynska, Carolina and Nilsson, Johan and Lundgren, Linda and Lindell, Gert and Andersson, Roland and Sandström, Per and Andersson, Bodil}},
  issn         = {{0002-9610}},
  keywords     = {{Incidental gallbladder cancer; Risk score model}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{3}},
  pages        = {{741--744}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{American Journal of Surgery}},
  title        = {{A risk score model to predict incidental gallbladder cancer in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amjsurg.2020.01.039}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.amjsurg.2020.01.039}},
  volume       = {{220}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}