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Climate warming and altered precipitation restructure grassland bumblebee communities

Kendall, Liam LU ; Brady, Mark V. LU orcid ; Nicholas, Kimberly A. LU orcid ; Olsson, Peter LU orcid ; Zhou, Zheng LU orcid and Smith, Henrik G. LU orcid (2026) In Ecosphere 17(9).
Abstract

Climate change represents a major threat to global biodiversity and associated ecosystem functions, including pollination. In both natural and agricultural environments, semi-natural grasslands represent crucial foraging and nesting habitats for wild pollinators such as bumblebees, for which temporal population trends in these habitats remain understudied. Here, we use data from a large-scale systematic monitoring program undertaken in semi-natural grasslands throughout Sweden from 2006 to 2020 to assess the impact of climate change on bumblebee communities. We found that bumblebee occurrence patterns were more strongly related to increased precipitation than rising temperatures. Bumblebee occurrence peaked at intermediate levels of... (More)

Climate change represents a major threat to global biodiversity and associated ecosystem functions, including pollination. In both natural and agricultural environments, semi-natural grasslands represent crucial foraging and nesting habitats for wild pollinators such as bumblebees, for which temporal population trends in these habitats remain understudied. Here, we use data from a large-scale systematic monitoring program undertaken in semi-natural grasslands throughout Sweden from 2006 to 2020 to assess the impact of climate change on bumblebee communities. We found that bumblebee occurrence patterns were more strongly related to increased precipitation than rising temperatures. Bumblebee occurrence peaked at intermediate levels of historical precipitation, whereas increased current levels of precipitation were related to increased occurrence in formerly dry regions and reduced occurrence in historically wet regions. In contrast, temperature effects were comparatively weak, with some increases in warmer regions and declines in colder regions. Furthermore, bumblebee occurrence increased by 49% over the monitoring period, equivalent to 3.3% per year, with three (14%) of the studied species showing significant increases. These patterns suggest that climate-driven changes in precipitation, likely mediated through effects on grassland plant communities, are influencing bumblebee distributions. Moreover, the range expansion of several species may contribute to changes in bumblebee community composition, particularly community homogenization. Model predictions under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios suggest that bumblebee occurrence may remain relatively stable in the future, if shifts in precipitation offset some of the negative impacts of rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of considering altered precipitation patterns, alongside other anthropogenic pressures, when developing conservation strategies to support bumblebee and other insect communities in grassland habitats.

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author
; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
conservation, long-term monitoring, pollinators, species distribution, wild bees
in
Ecosphere
volume
17
issue
9
article number
e70762
publisher
Ecological Society of America
external identifiers
  • scopus:105050623863
ISSN
2150-8925
DOI
10.1002/ecs2.70762
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s). Ecosphere published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.
id
b9a4b928-9ed3-440a-8c51-756b344b1a6e
date added to LUP
2026-09-24 13:04:35
date last changed
2026-09-24 14:20:11
@article{b9a4b928-9ed3-440a-8c51-756b344b1a6e,
  abstract     = {{<p>Climate change represents a major threat to global biodiversity and associated ecosystem functions, including pollination. In both natural and agricultural environments, semi-natural grasslands represent crucial foraging and nesting habitats for wild pollinators such as bumblebees, for which temporal population trends in these habitats remain understudied. Here, we use data from a large-scale systematic monitoring program undertaken in semi-natural grasslands throughout Sweden from 2006 to 2020 to assess the impact of climate change on bumblebee communities. We found that bumblebee occurrence patterns were more strongly related to increased precipitation than rising temperatures. Bumblebee occurrence peaked at intermediate levels of historical precipitation, whereas increased current levels of precipitation were related to increased occurrence in formerly dry regions and reduced occurrence in historically wet regions. In contrast, temperature effects were comparatively weak, with some increases in warmer regions and declines in colder regions. Furthermore, bumblebee occurrence increased by 49% over the monitoring period, equivalent to 3.3% per year, with three (14%) of the studied species showing significant increases. These patterns suggest that climate-driven changes in precipitation, likely mediated through effects on grassland plant communities, are influencing bumblebee distributions. Moreover, the range expansion of several species may contribute to changes in bumblebee community composition, particularly community homogenization. Model predictions under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios suggest that bumblebee occurrence may remain relatively stable in the future, if shifts in precipitation offset some of the negative impacts of rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of considering altered precipitation patterns, alongside other anthropogenic pressures, when developing conservation strategies to support bumblebee and other insect communities in grassland habitats.</p>}},
  author       = {{Kendall, Liam and Brady, Mark V. and Nicholas, Kimberly A. and Olsson, Peter and Zhou, Zheng and Smith, Henrik G.}},
  issn         = {{2150-8925}},
  keywords     = {{conservation; long-term monitoring; pollinators; species distribution; wild bees}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{9}},
  publisher    = {{Ecological Society of America}},
  series       = {{Ecosphere}},
  title        = {{Climate warming and altered precipitation restructure grassland bumblebee communities}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70762}},
  doi          = {{10.1002/ecs2.70762}},
  volume       = {{17}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}