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Management of urban floods based on tolerable consequences in an uncertain future

Haghighatafshar, Salar LU orcid ; Becker, Per LU orcid ; Moddemeyer, Steve ; Persson, Andreas LU ; Sörensen, Johanna LU ; Aspegren, Henrik LU orcid and Jönsson, Karin LU (2022) p.6955-6963
Abstract
Precipitation is intrinsically associated with high uncertainty, which is exacerbated exponentially over time—especially concerning climate change. However, the current design practice in urban drainage infrastructure remains firmly bound to deterministic assumptions regarding the design load. This approach is too simplified—focusing only on the return period of the design event—and ignores the complexity of drainage systems, the potential changes in catchment hydrology and the at-risk valuable assets within. Therefore, the current design approach is inherently an unsustainable practice that cannot deal with extreme uncertainties associated with urban drainage and flood resilience in changing climate and society. This paper examines the... (More)
Precipitation is intrinsically associated with high uncertainty, which is exacerbated exponentially over time—especially concerning climate change. However, the current design practice in urban drainage infrastructure remains firmly bound to deterministic assumptions regarding the design load. This approach is too simplified—focusing only on the return period of the design event—and ignores the complexity of drainage systems, the potential changes in catchment hydrology and the at-risk valuable assets within. Therefore, the current design approach is inherently an unsustainable practice that cannot deal with extreme uncertainties associated with urban drainage and flood resilience in changing climate and society. This paper examines the current deterministic design practice and encourages a collective discussion on the need for a paradigm shift in the engineering of pluvial floods toward a risk-based design. We believe that adopting a risk-based design will partially address the uncertainty and complexity of climate and urban drainage, respectively, although a method for the new practice in a risk-based design paradigm must be developed. (Less)
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author
; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
host publication
Proceedings of the 39th IAHR World Congress (Granada, 2022)
pages
19 pages
publisher
The International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research (IAHR)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85178350426
DOI
10.3850/IAHR-39WC252171192022300
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
cf1e1a32-65a0-4576-84f3-afaa8dd5e47e
date added to LUP
2022-07-04 10:05:24
date last changed
2024-01-12 11:24:28
@inproceedings{cf1e1a32-65a0-4576-84f3-afaa8dd5e47e,
  abstract     = {{Precipitation is intrinsically associated with high uncertainty, which is exacerbated exponentially over time—especially concerning climate change. However, the current design practice in urban drainage infrastructure remains firmly bound to deterministic assumptions regarding the design load. This approach is too simplified—focusing only on the return period of the design event—and ignores the complexity of drainage systems, the potential changes in catchment hydrology and the at-risk valuable assets within. Therefore, the current design approach is inherently an unsustainable practice that cannot deal with extreme uncertainties associated with urban drainage and flood resilience in changing climate and society. This paper examines the current deterministic design practice and encourages a collective discussion on the need for a paradigm shift in the engineering of pluvial floods toward a risk-based design. We believe that adopting a risk-based design will partially address the uncertainty and complexity of climate and urban drainage, respectively, although a method for the new practice in a risk-based design paradigm must be developed.}},
  author       = {{Haghighatafshar, Salar and Becker, Per and Moddemeyer, Steve and Persson, Andreas and Sörensen, Johanna and Aspegren, Henrik and Jönsson, Karin}},
  booktitle    = {{Proceedings of the 39th IAHR World Congress (Granada, 2022)}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{6955--6963}},
  publisher    = {{The International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research (IAHR)}},
  title        = {{Management of urban floods based on tolerable consequences in an uncertain future}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/IAHR-39WC252171192022300}},
  doi          = {{10.3850/IAHR-39WC252171192022300}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}