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Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population : A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study

Saha, Sanjib LU ; Nordstrom, Jonas LU ; Gerdtham, Ulf-G LU ; Mattisson, Irene; Nilsson, Peter M LU and Scarborough, Peter (2019) In International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16(5).
Abstract

The objective is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in Sweden if adults adhere to the official dietary recommendations. We used an age-group and sex-specific epidemiological macro-simulation model to estimate preventable deaths due to the discrepancies between actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake) and age- and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases together compared with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000... (More)

The objective is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in Sweden if adults adhere to the official dietary recommendations. We used an age-group and sex-specific epidemiological macro-simulation model to estimate preventable deaths due to the discrepancies between actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake) and age- and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases together compared with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations was performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). The model predicts that 6405 (95% UI: 5086⁻7086) deaths could be prevented or delayed if the Swedish population could adhere to official dietary recommendations in a year. More deaths would be saved for men than women. The recommendations for fruits and vegetables could have saved 47% of the deaths, followed by fiber intake (32%). For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more compared to other dietary components, while for women dietary fiber was the prominent factor. Public health policies should consider ensuring healthy eating practices for the Swedish population.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
volume
16
issue
5
publisher
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85062973749
ISSN
1660-4601
DOI
10.3390/ijerph16050890
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
dc9c3e9d-507f-4ac4-a5bf-2dc6861561e3
date added to LUP
2019-03-21 15:26:47
date last changed
2019-04-23 04:47:18
@article{dc9c3e9d-507f-4ac4-a5bf-2dc6861561e3,
  abstract     = {<p>The objective is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in Sweden if adults adhere to the official dietary recommendations. We used an age-group and sex-specific epidemiological macro-simulation model to estimate preventable deaths due to the discrepancies between actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake) and age- and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases together compared with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations was performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). The model predicts that 6405 (95% UI: 5086⁻7086) deaths could be prevented or delayed if the Swedish population could adhere to official dietary recommendations in a year. More deaths would be saved for men than women. The recommendations for fruits and vegetables could have saved 47% of the deaths, followed by fiber intake (32%). For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more compared to other dietary components, while for women dietary fiber was the prominent factor. Public health policies should consider ensuring healthy eating practices for the Swedish population.</p>},
  articleno    = {890},
  author       = {Saha, Sanjib and Nordstrom, Jonas and Gerdtham, Ulf-G and Mattisson, Irene and Nilsson, Peter M and Scarborough, Peter},
  issn         = {1660-4601},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {03},
  number       = {5},
  publisher    = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)},
  series       = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
  title        = {Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population : A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16050890},
  volume       = {16},
  year         = {2019},
}